Alternative Premier League table after 31 games, based on expected goals

Alternative Premier League table after 31 games, based on expected goals
Even if the FA Cup quarter-finals decimated the Premier League fixture list we still got an enthralling weekend of action.Liverpool returned to the top of the table with a late win over Fulham while, with the chance to put themselves within one point of third sport, Chelsea blew it and lost 2-0 to Everton at Goodison Park.9

Liverpool players celebrate during their win over Fulham

The Blues weren’t at the races with only one really high quality chance during the game when Gonzalo Higuain saw his shot block on the right of the six-yard box.Meanwhile, West Ham and Huddersfield Town played out a seven-goal thriller with the Hammers winning 4-3, perhaps with a tinge of fortune, as they only created shots with an expected goals value of just 1.88 – and that includes Mark Noble’s penalty.But how would the Premier League table look if it was based on results calculated by ‘Expected Goals’? Here at talkSPORT.com were always keeping an eye onUnderstat.com to see how clubs are performing based on their xG stats.Find out how the stats believe the Premier League SHOULD be shaping up below

What is expected goals?

• Expected goals (xG) is a statistic used to work out how many goals should be scored in a match.
• Every single shot is awarded an xG value based on the difficulty of the attempt, with factors including distance from goal, type of shot and number of defenders present affecting the value.
• The higher the xG of a particular shot, the more likely a goal should be scored from that shot.
• The xG value of every shot in a game is then used to calculate the expected goals in a particular match.

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20. Huddersfield – Real position = 20Games played – 31Real points = 14 | Expected points = 25.4919. Fulham – Real position = 19Games played – 31Real points = 17 | Expected points = 27.359

Ryan Babel equalises against Liverpool but it wasn’t enough to get three points in the end

18. Brighton & Hove Albion – Real position = 15Games played – 29Real points = 33 | Expected points = 29.9317. Cardiff City – Real position = 18Games played – 30Real points = 28 | Expected points = 30.5516. Newcastle United – Real position = 14Games played – 31Real points = 35 | Expected points = 30.559

Almiron has been brilliant since signing for Newcastle

15. Southampton – Real position = 17Games played – 30Real points = 30 | Expected points = 33.6214. Burnley – Real position = 16Games played – 31Real points = 30 | Expected points = 34.2713. West Ham – Real position = 9Games played – 31Real points = 42 | Expected points = 35.169

Declan Rice has had an outstanding season with West Ham

12. Everton – Real position = 10Games played – 31Real points = 40 | Expected points = 39.3311. Watford – Real position = 8Games played – 30Real points = 43 | Expected points = 40.0410. Bournemouth – Real position = 12Games played – 31Real points = 38 | Expected points = 40.849

Can Bournemouth finish in the top eight?

9. Crystal Palace – Real position = 13Games played – 30Real points = 33 | Expected points = 41.348. Leicester – Real position = 11Games played – 31Real points = 41 | Expected points = 45.109

Leicester City have shown great character throughout the course of the season

7. Wolverhampton Wanderers – Real position = 7Games played – 30Real points = 44 | Expected points = 47.686. Arsenal – Real position = 5Games played – 30Real points = 60 | Expected points = 48.339

Alexandre Lacazette celebrates

5. Tottenham – Real position = 3Games played – 30Real points = 61 | Expected points = 49.504. Manchester United – Real position = 4Games played – 30Real points = 58 | Expected points = 49.763. Chelsea – Real position = 6Games played – 30Real points = 57 | Expected points = 54.339

Chelsea were dismal against Everton

2. Liverpool – Real position = 2Games played – 31Real points = 76 | Expected points = 69.261. Manchester City – Real position = 1Games played – 30Real points = 74 | Expected points = 71.829

Will Manchester City be celebrating at the end of the season?

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Expected goals (xG) is a statistic used to work out how many goals should be scored in a match. Every single shot is awarded an xG value based on the difficulty of the attempt, with factors including distance from goal, type of shot and number of defenders present affecting the value.
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But how would the Premier League table look if it was based on results calculated by 'Expected Goals'? Here at talkSPORT.com we're always keeping an eye on Understat.com to see how clubs are performing based on their xG stats. Find out how the stats believe the Premier League SHOULD be shaping up below…
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